Needless to say, there are many factors behind home sales and values in different communities. Home size is one of them, and median sales prices are not apples to apples comparisons: For example, in Pacific Heights, the average house size is over 4000 square feet, while in Sunnyside, it runs about 1500 square feet.ote that it is not uncommon for median sales prices to peak for the year in Q2.
Market Dynamics by Realtor District
Q2 is commonly the hottest market of the calendar year, and the statistics below generally reflect a very strong spring 2019 market.
Home Sales by Price Range
Of homes selling for under $1,000,000, over 80% were condos, co-ops and TICs, and most of those were smaller units.
Tenants, Fixer-Uppers, Homes without Parking, Homes with Golden Gate Bridge Views
Market Seasonality: The Autumn Spike, Then the Winter Doldrums
Though spring is the biggest overall selling season in San Francisco, the single month with the highest number of new listings is typically September. This big surge fuels the relatively short autumn selling season – highlighted by the dramatic spike in sales in October. In November, activity begins to plunge for the mid-winter holidays – though homes continue to sell in every season.
Seasonality: New Listings by Month
New Listings – Long-Term Trends, 12-Month Rolling Figures
Seasonality: Listings Going into Contract by Month
Higher-Price Home Sales
The central greater Noe-Eureka-Cole Valleys district now has the highest number of home sales over $2 million, but the northern Pacific Heights-Cow Hollow district dominates sales of $5 million and above.
The SF luxury home market is even more dramatically driven by seasonality than the general market. September often sees a tremendous burst of new listings. October is sometimes the single month with the most luxury house sales.
Long-Term Appreciation Trends by District
Though prices vary, appreciation trend lines since the recovery began in 2012 are often relatively similar.
In the next chart, we combine house sales across the swathe of older, prestige neighborhoods that run across the north of the city – generally speaking, a region of larger houses and higher prices. (Putting them on the chart above would flatten the other trend lines due to issues of scale.) None of these neighborhoods have that many sales – and some have very, very few – so we combine them to increase statistical reliability. Though they are all high-price, prices do vary considerably between them.
Median Two-Bedroom Condo Prices by Realtor District
There is significantly less variation in condo prices in most of the neighborhoods of SF than there is with houses. Much of this has to do with all the new construction that has occurred in the last 20 years. Probably the greatest differences in condo values are between those on lower floors and those on higher floors of new luxury high-rises.
The spring burst in high-tech IPOs in San Francisco also played a role in the heat of the Q2 market.
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